The year 2024 marked a turning point for India, as the nation recorded its warmest year in history since 1901. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the average minimum temperature for the year was a staggering 0.90°C above the long-term average, setting a new record. This temperature surge reflects an alarming trend that is reshaping India’s climate landscape, with potential far-reaching impacts on agriculture, human health, and the environment.
In addition to surpassing previous records, the annual mean temperature for 2024 reached an unprecedented 25.75°C, which is 0.65°C above the long-period average. This marks the highest average temperature in India since records began over a century ago. The country also saw the average maximum temperature settle at 31.25°C, 0.20°C above normal, ranking it as the fourth highest since 1901.
Climate Change in India
One of the most notable developments in 2024 was the increase in minimum temperatures, which averaged 20.24°C—a full 0.90°C above normal. IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, emphasized the severity of these figures, highlighting how the record-breaking temperatures impacted various parts of the country. The average minimum temperature was not only higher than the norm but also reached the highest level ever recorded for the months of July, August, September, and October, with February also showing the second-highest minimum temperature on record.
This shift indicates that India is experiencing a significant warming trend, which could exacerbate existing climate challenges, especially in relation to agriculture and energy demands. In a comparison of temperature records, the year 2024 surpassed the previous hottest year on record, 2016, by a significant margin. 2016 had previously held the title with a mean temperature of 0.54°C above normal, but 2024 has now solidified itself as the warmest year in India’s recorded history.
This stark rise in temperatures mirrors the global climate crisis, where warming trends are becoming increasingly evident. As temperatures climb, the repercussions for natural ecosystems, human populations, and economic activities become ever more pressing.
One of the major concerns stemming from the rise in temperatures is its potential impact on agriculture. As temperatures remain high, particularly during the critical winter and post-monsoon seasons, crops in various parts of India may face significant stress. According to IMD, the 2025 rainfall forecast for North India suggests that it will likely be below normal (less than 86% of the long-period average (LPA)). This moisture deficit could place additional strain on standing rabi crops, potentially leading to crop failures or reduced yields. Moreover, the persistence of high temperatures and drought conditions could intensify existing challenges such as water scarcity, particularly in regions that rely heavily on monsoon rains.
Climate Extremes and Global Trends
India’s 2024 temperature surge aligns with broader global climate patterns. The European climate agency, Copernicus, reported that 2024 is likely to go down as the warmest year globally, with average temperatures surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This marks a significant milestone, as global warming is officially crossing thresholds outlined in the Paris Agreement, signaling an era of sustained, high temperatures.
Additionally, climate scientists from World Weather Attribution and Climate Central noted that 2024 witnessed 41 additional days of extreme heat, underlining the severity of the ongoing climate crisis. Experts warn that the 1.5°C threshold may become the new normal, signaling a period in which global temperatures will consistently exceed pre-industrial levels, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Despite the alarming data for 2024, the IMD is already looking ahead to the coming year. According to the department’s 2025 forecast, North India is expected to experience below-normal rainfall during the first quarter of the year, which could negatively impact both agriculture and water resources.
However, there is some mixed news on the horizon. While January 2025 is predicted to see above-normal minimum temperatures across much of India, regions in East, Northwest, and West-Central India may experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures. This could provide some respite from the heat, particularly in areas that traditionally experience colder winters. In addition, cold-wave days are expected to be above normal over Western and Northern Central India in January 2025. These conditions could bring a temporary relief to regions that typically struggle with high temperatures during the winter months.
Looking beyond the temperature extremes, the IMD also highlighted the anticipated La Niña conditions expected in January 2025. La Niña is often associated with cooler ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which usually brings colder winters to North India. However, the IMD cautioned that these conditions would be short-lived and are unlikely to significantly alter the broader warming trend observed over recent years.
The Bigger Picture: A Global Climate Crisis
Globally, 2024 stands as a stark reminder of the reality of climate change. June 2023 marked the first time that global temperatures crossed the 1.5°C threshold—a warning sign that climate experts have been sounding for years. Since then, the trend has persisted, further cementing the idea that the world is now entering a phase where temperature levels will consistently breach these critical levels, with far-reaching consequences.
The rise in global temperatures has already exceeded 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial period, and this is driven primarily by the rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. This accelerating pace of warming demands immediate action to mitigate the most damaging effects of climate change.
The data from 2024 highlights the urgency of addressing the ongoing climate crisis. As temperatures continue to rise, India and the world at large must take swift action to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewable energy, and strengthen climate resilience strategies. Agriculture, infrastructure, and public health systems need to adapt to the changing climate to mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme heat, flooding, and droughts. The year 2024 is a stark reminder that climate change is not a distant threat but a present-day reality that requires immediate and sustained action at the global level.